Market snapshot
The European bus market is changing fast. Frost & Sullivan (F&S) sees strong growth for zero-emission city buses, but also clear gaps to close before 2030.
- Tipping point: in 2023, battery-electric city buses outsold diesel for the first time in Europe.
- 2030 outlook (city buses): F&S expect about 74% alternative powertrains (mostly BEV), below the EU target of 90%.
- Why not higher: high purchase price, slow battery progress in Europe (vs. China), and a lack of fast-charging infrastructure.
- Coaches/intercity: main barriers are range and charging. Hydrogen is technically ready but too costly in production and operation.
- Competition: Chinese OEMs now hold around 26–27% of the European market (Yutong 15%, BYD 11%).
- Core advice: governments should subsidize the full ecosystem – not just vehicle purchase, but also depots, charging, and energy prices.
“The tipping point is here – but the full ecosystem still needs support. Without infrastructure and fair energy pricing, 90% zero-emission sales by 2030 will be out of reach,” said Mundan Dinadayalan, Frost & Sullivan.
Panel insights
Roman Biondi – Daimler Buses
Roman Biondi believes the industry can deliver on city bus electrification, but the challenges for coaches remain huge.
“Class 1 can reach 100% electric by 2030 – if cities get the power and the funding. But class 3? Not without clear rules, infrastructure, and support,” he said.
He also warned that hydrogen “looks promising, but fuel cost kills the business case,” and called for “a true European industrial policy to keep a level playing field.”
Giorgio Zino – IVECO BUS
Giorgio Zino underlined the uneven speed of change across Europe.
“Each city moves at its own rhythm – rules, subsidies and even power availability differ everywhere,” he said.
IVECO’s electric product range is ready, but demand is still ramping up. Giordiani argued for technology neutrality:
“Let’s use what already works locally, like biogas, while we build the road to full electrification.”
He highlighted IVECO’s growing footprint in France and Italy, where new battery assembly and production plants anchor the value chain in Europe.
Leo Zheng – Higer
For Leo Zheng, European goals are achievable – but ambitious.
“China moved from four to seventy-four percent electric buses in ten years. Europe can do it too, but the challenge is big,” he noted.
He confirmed 500 km range BEV coaches are already feasible, while hydrogen remains limited by cost and refueling networks.
“The products are ready. It’s the infrastructure and local-content rules that make the climb steep for new players,” he added.
Axel Volckery – European Commission (DG MOVE)
Axel Volckery praised the industry’s progress since 2016 but focused on what comes next.
“The transition is not just a new powertrain – it’s a full transformation of the ecosystem,” he said.
He outlined EU funding tools (RRF, cohesion funds, InvestEU, Social Climate Fund) and upcoming regulations (grids package, AFIR review, SUMPs).
“We want production in Europe with real value added – no screwdriver factories,” Fleri emphasized, referring to the coming Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act with local-content criteria tied to public support.
What to watch?
- City buses: trending toward 74% BEV by 2030 vs. 90% target → need stronger grid access + predictable funding.
- Coaches: clarify use-cases, build charging corridors, balance TCO before setting firm targets.
- Ecosystem approach: support vehicles + depots + infrastructure + energy together.
- Industry policy: link public funds to European value creation (batteries, components, skills).
- Policy stability: avoid stop–start funding that slows operators and OEMs.
Bottom line
Europe’s bus sector is moving in the right direction. The tipping point has passed, but the finish line needs teamwork – between governments, manufacturers, and operators. City buses are on track; coaches still need a bridge.
“We’ve proved the transition works. Now it’s about making it work for everyone,” concluded Axel Volckery.